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Second, if the target can move, time will allow the target to ﬂee, move into a strongpoint, or otherwise change position in such a way that the attacker will have much greater uncertainty about where the target is located. 1 1 In simulations conducted for other analyses for the Department of Defense, we have observed that single gunners have dramatically altered the overall outcomes of engagements when small numbers of ground elements are involved. What Adversary Operational Problems Can UAVs and Cruise Missiles Best Solve 33 While, on balance, it would appear that stealth has advantages over direct assault on defended targets (an advantage reﬂected in the history of terrorist operational design choices), the risks associated with both could make alternative attack modes attractive.
For several types of attacks, we compared the suitability of cruise missiles and UAVs against other options, such as vest bombs, car bombs, and mortars. In doing so, we do not imply that a terrorist group will necessarily undertake a rigorous or quantitative assessment of the separable costs, beneﬁts, and risks of diﬀerent attack options in operational planning but, rather, that decisionmaking will focus on choosing attractive attack modes from the terrorists’ point of view and criteria. Such an assessment could be intuitive or implicit rather than quantitative and methodical.
Other analysts have cited additional instances of either expressions of interest or pursuit of these weapons by such groups (see, for example, the discussion in Gips, 2002). The 2006 conﬂict between Hezbollah and Israel demonstrated broad use of some types of rockets and ballistic missiles by a nonstate organization, including weapons with ranges reaching to and potentially beyond 100 kilometers (km) (see, for example, the discussion in Gardner, 2006). Hezbollah also used a limited number of anti-ship cruise missiles against naval targets, including a successful strike on an Israeli military vessel (see the discussion in Hilburn, 2006).