Intelligence Espionage

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (Second Edition) by David T. Moore

By David T. Moore

Analysts and analysts alone create intelligence. Although technological marvels assist analysts by cataloging and presenting data, information and evidence in new ways, they do not do analysis. To be most effective, analysts need an overarching, reflective framework to add structured reasoning to sound, intuitivethinking. "Critical thinking" provides such a framework and goes further, positively influencing the entire intelligence analysis process. Analysts who adopt critical thinking stand to improve their analysis. This paper defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entireintelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit.

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Blight and David A. , Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis (London, UK: Frank Cass, 1998), 22. Emphasis in original. ” 43 Garthoff, “US Intelligence,” 29. 44 Garthoff, “US Intelligence,” 28, 58. S. Intelligence never did reach a correct conclusion. S. Intelligence,” 28). 45 Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997), 45. Jervis draws on the work of Klaus Knorr. See Klaus Knorr, “Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Cuban Missiles,” World Politics 16 (April 1964): 455–67.

Therefore it fails to be critical thinking. Unless the process, and the means, to improve a person’s reasoning are emphasized, then at best such examples teach structured problem solving. At worst, they deal merely in criticism; they fail to assist people to learn to reason better. Central to critical thinking are the twin foci on the way in which a person is reasoning and the goal of improving that process. One could easily infer that misconceptions about critical thinking could be associated with what is taught as 37 critical thinking in American educational institutions.

Taken literally, creativity has no heart (nor any other organs) since it is a notion or a concept, not a living animal. Yet the analogy to a living being aids understanding. – 34 – (mapping), evaluate and adapt the inferences to take account of unique aspects of the target (evaluation), and finally learn something more general from the success or failure of the 84 analogy (learning). Since analogy is such a powerful element in human reasoning, how can critical thinking outwit or control it? As developed in this paper, it does so by imposing a structure on the thinking.

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